China’s Plan to Reincarnate the Dalai Lama

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China is one of only two countries whose population
sizes stand out so dramatically from all the

rest.

The fact that almost a billion and a half
people are represented by one flag, one government,

and ultimately, one person is something everyone
knows but very few appreciate for its difficulty.

Just how does a country this big stay unified?

The short answer is: it’s not.

China appears monolithic because of its centralized
source of power - the Communist Party - and

its relative lack of ethnic diversity.

91% of its population is ethnically Han Chinese,
and all but one other group comprises less

than 1%, overall.

These small percentages, though, in a country
this big, translate to significant absolute

numbers.

Just as important when discussing unity, is
the concentration of these peoples.

A map of China’s languages, or its ethnic
distribution, paint a much more divided picture.

Very roughly speaking, these principally Mandarin
and Han areas are unified, culturally.

The others, from the perspective of Beijing,
present either an ongoing or potential inclination

towards detachment.

The abundance of these regions is reflected
in its complicated administrative structure.

At its most simplified, China is first divided
into 22 regular provinces, like Sichuan, within

which are Prefectures like Wuhan, followed
by Counties, Townships, and lastly, Villages

or communities.

In practice, there are quite a few exceptions.

Taiwan, for example, is China’s claimed
23rd province, 4 mega-cities including Beijing

and Shanghai are treated as provinces, there
are two Special Administrative Regions, and,

finally: five autonomous regions: Xinjiang,
Inner Mongolia, Tibet, Guanxi, and Ningxia,

each for one of the country’s largest ethnic
minorities.

Only in two of them, however, are Han Chinese
not the majority group.

In Xinjiang, Uyghurs make up 45% of the population
compared to 40% Han Chinese, and Tibet is

92% Tibetan.

These two regions are similar in that while
they comprise only a tiny portion of China’s

overall population, they’re among its most
strategically useful.

Tibet is, in fact, its least populated province,
with only 3 million people or 0.2% overall.

Underneath its sparsely populated land, however,
are bountiful reserves of copper, iron, lead,

potassium, and other important minerals.

The vast, mountainous landscape also protects
the core of China from invasion.

In the future, its most coveted resource may
become its water.

After the Arctic and Antarctic, the Tibetan
Plateau contains the world’s largest source

of freshwater, earning it the nickname “Earth’s
third pole”.

This is especially important because of China’s
otherwise poor water position.

More than a quarter of its land is desert,
whose storms blow dust into cities like Beijing.

Many of its rivers, meanwhile, are too polluted
to provide an adequate supply of water.

As the world’s glaciers melt and water becomes
increasingly scarce, areas like these could

easily become the source of state conflict.

But while Tibet and Xinjiang are among China’s
most valuable regions, they’re also among

its most at risk of detachment.

Thus, why it places such high importance on
cohesion.

At times, it’s promoted unity by rejecting
ethnic differences.

Linguistically, for example, the Chinese term
“mínzú” refers both to “nation”

and “ethnic group”, implicitly denying
a difference.

Other times cohesion has been promoted by
explicitly acknowledging differences and then

correcting for them.

All Chinese National ID cards list their holder’s
ethnicity, which, since the reform following

the death of Mao, has played a significant
role in a person’s opportunities and privileges.

Minorities were exempted from laws like the
One Child Policy, receive preferential admission

to university, and may have an easier time
securing loans, for instance.

Finally, in more recent times, cohesion has
been forced in the unfortunate form of violence.

The most prominent example of which is China’s
campaign to restrict the religious and personal

rights of Xinjiang’s Muslim Uyghurs by placing
as many as a million in brutal so-called “re-education”

camps.

Although Chinese authorities claim their purpose
is to manage religious extremism, the ultimate

goal is to pull the country’s geographic
and cultural edges closer and minimize the

risk of secession.

Horrific as these recent developments are,
they aren’t without precedent.

Before assuming the office of president, Xi
Jinping’s predecessor, Hu Jintao served

as the highest-ranked official in the Tibet
Autonomous Region, during which martial law

was declared following a violent crackdown
on protests in 1989.

Later, as president, he appointed a man named
Chen Quanguo to his previous post in Tibet.

There, Chen gained a reputation for his swift,
uncompromising approach to dissent and creating

a vast system of state surveillance.

In 2016, he was moved by Xi’s administration
from Tibet to Xinjiang, along with his oppressive

methods, only now with the help of modern
technology.

In other words, Tibet is the model for Xinjiang.

There is, however, one major difference: His
Holiness the Dalai Lama.

While China’s camps prompt international
condemnation, the issue lacks a recognizable

face.

Tibet presents a unique challenge to China
because the Dalai Lama is such an admired,

charismatic leader.

After remaining largely independent between
1913 and 50, the new People’s Republic of

China invaded Tibet in 51, forcing the Dalai
Lama to recognize Chinese sovereignty.

In 1959, fearing his safety, he fled in disguise
to India, where he was granted asylum.

To this day, although the Chinese government
maintains de-facto control over Tibet, the

Central Tibetan Administration, as its known,
continues to claim it.

Its compound in North India is now home to
a community of over 100,000 Tibetans in exile.

Although the Tibetan cause is not as high-profile
as it once was, the Dalai Lama regularly travels

the world, giving speeches at universities,
granting interviews, and meeting with important

figures.

To evade the ire of Beijing, countries often
frame these meetings in religious, not political

terms.

When His Holiness visited the White House
in 2016, it released a careful statement which

“reiterated the longstanding U.S. position
that Tibet is a part of the People's Republic

of China”.

Notably, the meeting with President Obama
occurred in the White House Map Room, not

the Oval Office.

Inevitably, though, Beijing still retaliates.

After David Cameron’s meeting in 2012, China
froze high-level political contact for nearly

a year.

Although these events rarely lead to any substantive
progress, they help cement his legitimacy

and raise public awareness.

The downside of having such an influential
single figurehead is that heads are mortal.

The Dalai Lama was hospitalized last April
for a chest infection, which, at 84 years

old, naturally raises questions about what
comes next.

According to Tibetan Buddhism, the Dalai Lama
has reached the ultimate goal of breaking

the cycle of birth and death but instead chosen
to continue being reincarnated in order to

help others reach their spiritual enlightenment.

The current Dalai Lama is the 14th body in
that six-century long line.

However, because monks are celibate, succession
cannot be hereditary.

When a Dalai Lama dies, a search must therefore
be conducted to “discover” the newly reincarnated

body.

This process can take years and involves the
reading of arcane spiritual signs.

For example, the deceased body of the 13th
Dalai Lama initially lay facing south.

After a few days, his head had shifted to
the east while a fungus appeared on the northeastern

side of his shrine.

High Lamas interpreted this as a sign the
next body would be found in northeastern Tibet,

where they searched villages for newly born
children.

Next, a series of tests are conducted to confirm
a suspected child.

The 14th Dalai Lama was presented items for
identification, some previously owned by his

predecessor.

After allegedly being able to correctly identify
all of them, and receiving confirmation from

scholars, he began relearning the knowledge
from his previous lives in preparation for

leadership.

Clearly, this opaque process leaves plenty
of ambiguity for China to take advantage of.

And because Tibetan Buddhism is not confined
to Tibet or China, by managing religious traditions,

it also wields incredible influence over its
followers around the world.

Although officially atheistic, the Communist
Party does not hesitate to encourage and even

enforce religion when useful.

China has spent $3 billion developing the
site of the Buddha’s birth in Nepal, built

a Buddhist center in Myanmar, and donated
to the translation of Buddhist texts.

Likewise, if it can use the institution of
the Dalai Lama to influence millions, it will

gladly ignore the irony.

In 2007, it passed national legislation regulating
reincarnation.

Under these new laws, the party maintains
a database of officially sanctioned Buddhas

after training them to promote ideological
harmony.

Most absurd of all, individuals are required
to submit an “Application for Reincarnation”

to the government for approval.

In 2011, new ordinances were passed which
station party officials at monasteries for

direct supervision.

Seeing the writing on the wall, the Dalai
Lama then issued an edict exploring the possibility

of selecting a child before his death, or
a spiritual transfer to a fully grown adult.

He later added that his successor may be born
outside Tibet, perhaps as a woman, and that

it may even be time for the tradition of the
Dalai Lama to end.

Clearly, his intends on leaving all possibilities
on the table.

By not advocating Tibetan independence, only
autonomy, the Dalai Lama is a pragmatic negotiator.

Finally, he resigned from all political responsibilities,
thus, minimizing the potential damage of a

Chinese-chosen successor.

Chinese officials countered that such a decision
is not his to make - that religious precedent

must be respected.

Since then, China has reiterated its position
that reincarnation “must comply with Chinese

laws”, while U.S. officials have stated
that Congress would refuse to recognize anyone

chosen by the Chinese government.

The Dalai Lama plans on making a decision
when he turns around 90, in 2025.

With every day, the chance of health failure
rises, as do the odds of China appointing

their preference, as they did in 1995 with
the second most important Lama.

When that day comes, China may or may not
be successful in gaining the support of Tibetans.

But without question, the death of such a
personable icon will leave a huge hole in

the Tibetan cause and help bring Beijing one
huge step closer to its dream of a single,

unified China.

Tibet is only one of many border regions that
could pose a threat to Chinese unity.

One, though, is different: Macau.

Like its neighbor, Hong Kong, Macau is a small,
Cantonese-speaking former European colony.

The two Special Administrative Regions are
even neighbors, and yet Hong Kong fiercely

protests against China, while Macau adores
it.

Why?

That’s the question I answer in my 30-minute
documentary available now on Nebula.

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